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ToffelCapital

Investment research. Portfolio performance.

One personal account. No outside money is managed.

Portfolio against SPY and QQQ

Cumulative return since

Shown: Jul 3, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026 (330 daily closes)

At

  • Portfolio+35.42%
  • QQQ+27.38%
  • SPY+23.18%
Custom range

Drag either handle, or use the arrow keys on it. The starting point stays Jul 3, 2025.

Time-weighted. Self-reported, not independently verified. Methodology

Since

Cumulative return since Jul 3, 2025, to the Oct 23, 2026 close. The chart's range does not change these figures.
Portfoliotime-weighted+35.42%
SPYtotal return+23.18%
QQQtotal return+27.38%

To the close. Portfolio minus SPY +12.24 points; largest drawdown −21.04%, to .

Annual returns
Returns by calendar year
Series2025Jul 3 to Dec 312026Jan 2 to Oct 23
Portfolio+13.57%+19.24%
SPY+9.67%+12.32%
QQQ+10.71%+15.06%

Full performance

Research

Assessing the Frontier

The paper sets out the market view behind the portfolio and tests what current prices assume.

· 17 pages

Read the paperPDF995 KB

Recent decisions

Decision log

  1. Exit iShares SGOV SGOV

    Exited SGOV and redeployed the reserve into AMZN, META and SPCX.

    Log entry: iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF, October 2026, day not recorded

  2. Add Meta META

    Added after Muse and the Muse Wonder models launched. […]

    Full entry: Meta Platforms, Oct 6, 2026

  3. Add Amazon AMZN

    Added to own more of AWS. […]

    Full entry: Amazon.com, Oct 6, 2026

Holdings

Full portfolio

13 on , as shares of securities; cash excluded. META is above the 11.5% soft ceiling (see the Oct 6, 2026 add).

Holdings by weight, largest
HoldingWeight
Meta META15.96%
Amazon AMZN11.23%
ServiceNow NOW10.18%
Alphabet GOOGL10.04%
VanEck SMH SMH9.04%
Vistra VST7.07%
Constellation CEG5.70%
Holdings by weight, remaining
Mastercard MA5.55%
MercadoLibre MELI5.49%
SPDR GLDM GLDM5.43%
UnitedHealth UNH4.81%
SpaceX SPCX4.81%
Nebius NBIS4.69%