AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
Portfolio weight
Not currently held
This position has been exited. The analysis below is kept as a record of the reasoning at the time and is not maintained as current research. See the Decision Log for the full decision history.
Exited on valuation and relative preference
I exited the position because the narrative had moved ahead of the underlying story, and valuation had become less attractive, particularly relative to NVIDIA.
After a very large move the odds of a consolidation period looked high, and the same capital seemed better used elsewhere. The company did not become worse; the expected return at that price did.
What the trims got right and wrong
The trims did what they were supposed to do. AMD hit 11.45% in May 2026, above my band, and I cut it back over several sessions on size rather than on view. That is the policy working, and AMD still ended up the largest realized contributor in the account.
The part I would question is the gap between May and July. In May I said explicitly that the trim was not a thesis reversal. By late July I exited the rest on valuation. If the thesis was intact in May, something should have changed in the two months between, and I cannot point to what did. The honest read is that the July exit was partly a reaction to a position that had already been shrinking.
Relative valuation
Forward P/E
Valuation data pending
Direct-peer average
Pending
Versus its own history
Historical forward-P/E series pending. Maintained by hand in data/fundamentals/manual.ts. No free, reliable source exists for consensus estimates, so nothing is inferred here.
Direct peers
used in the average
Similar enough that comparing multiples is meaningful.
NVDA
NVIDIA
74% similar
fwd P/E pending
Strategic competitors
never averaged
Competing for the same customers or budget, but too different financially for their multiple to say much about this holding.
CBRS
Cerebras Systems
25% similar
fwd P/E pending
Excluded from peer average: competes for the same demand, but a different financial profile
META
Meta Platforms
22% similar
fwd P/E pending
Excluded from peer average: competes for the same demand, but a different financial profile
CRWV
CoreWeave
19% similar
fwd P/E pending
Excluded from peer average: competes for the same demand, but a different financial profile
APLD
Applied Digital
18% similar
fwd P/E pending
Excluded from peer average: competes for the same demand, but a different financial profile
Selected by weighted similarity across business model, revenue model, products, end markets, customer type, capital intensity, growth, margins and geography. Direct peers score ≥55% and sit within 2 diversification steps; only they feed the peer average.


