Historical positionEquitySemiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices logo

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

Portfolio weight

Not currently held

This position has been exited. The analysis below is kept as a record of the reasoning at the time and is not maintained as current research. See the Decision Log for the full decision history.

Exited on valuation and relative preference

I exited the position because the narrative had moved ahead of the underlying story, and valuation had become less attractive, particularly relative to NVIDIA.

After a very large move the odds of a consolidation period looked high, and the same capital seemed better used elsewhere. The company did not become worse; the expected return at that price did.

What the trims got right and wrong

The trims did what they were supposed to do. AMD hit 11.45% in May 2026, above my band, and I cut it back over several sessions on size rather than on view. That is the policy working, and AMD still ended up the largest realized contributor in the account.

The part I would question is the gap between May and July. In May I said explicitly that the trim was not a thesis reversal. By late July I exited the rest on valuation. If the thesis was intact in May, something should have changed in the two months between, and I cannot point to what did. The honest read is that the July exit was partly a reaction to a position that had already been shrinking.

Relative valuation

Forward P/E

Valuation data pending

Direct-peer average

Pending

Versus its own history

Historical forward-P/E series pending. Maintained by hand in data/fundamentals/manual.ts. No free, reliable source exists for consensus estimates, so nothing is inferred here.

Direct peers

used in the average

Similar enough that comparing multiples is meaningful.

NVDA

NVDA

NVIDIA

74% similar

fwd P/E pending

same business modelsame revenue modelsimilar capital intensity

Strategic competitors

never averaged

Competing for the same customers or budget, but too different financially for their multiple to say much about this holding.

Cerebras Systems logo

CBRS

Cerebras Systems

25% similar

fwd P/E pending

same end marketssimilar capital intensitysimilar growth profile

Excluded from peer average: competes for the same demand, but a different financial profile

Meta Platforms logo

META

Meta Platforms

22% similar

fwd P/E pending

similar margin profilesame customer typesimilar growth profile

Excluded from peer average: competes for the same demand, but a different financial profile

CRWV

CRWV

CoreWeave

19% similar

fwd P/E pending

same customer typesimilar growth profilesimilar margin profile

Excluded from peer average: competes for the same demand, but a different financial profile

APLD

APLD

Applied Digital

18% similar

fwd P/E pending

same customer typesimilar growth profilesimilar margin profile

Excluded from peer average: competes for the same demand, but a different financial profile

Selected by weighted similarity across business model, revenue model, products, end markets, customer type, capital intensity, growth, margins and geography. Direct peers score ≥55% and sit within 2 diversification steps; only they feed the peer average.