ASTS

This is an asymmetric-upside position. Orbital deployment has increased my confidence that the technical story is progressing. Moving from design to operating hardware in orbit removes a category of doubt that no amount of modeling could resolve.

The theoretical addressable market is enormous, because direct-to-device connectivity could eventually reach phones globally without requiring new handsets. Working with mobile carriers rather than against them is what makes that distribution plausible.

The word doing the work there is theoretical, and I do not treat that market as forecast revenue. Reaching any of it requires a full constellation, which requires sustained financing and a launch campaign in which every satellite is funded before it earns anything. Spectrum and regulatory clearance are needed market by market.

The downside and execution risks remain significant, so position sizing stays small. The range of outcomes here is genuinely wide. A working constellation and a failed deployment are both realistic, and the allocation reflects that rather than the attractiveness of the upside case alone.