Performance
Time-weighted return from , the first day of account activity, through the close: 330 trading sessions.
- Portfolio, final closing return, Oct 23
- −0.40%
- Delayed quotes last updated
- Market status
- Checking
The official series ends with the final closing return for Oct 23, 2026. Intraday estimates never enter it. Prices from Yahoo Finance, delayed. Corrected Oct 16, 2026.
Summary
- Portfolio, cumulative
- +35.42%
- Time-weighted return, since inception
- SPY, cumulative
- +23.18%
- Total return, same sessions
- Excess over SPY
- +12.24 pts
- Portfolio minus SPY, percentage points
- Maximum drawdown
- −21.04%
- Trough Mar 30, 2026, daily data
Cumulative return
Daily closes. Each series starts at 0% on Jul 3, 2025; same trading sessions
- Portfolio, time-weighted
- SPY total return
- QQQ total return (Nasdaq-100 proxy)
Total return for SPY and QQQ, from dividend- and split-adjusted closes. Source: Yahoo Finance. Focus the chart and use the arrow keys to read values. Methodology
Table: cumulative return at each month end
| Date | Portfolio | SPY | QQQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2025 | +2.26% | +1.08% | +1.58% |
| Aug 29, 2025 | +5.52% | +3.15% | +2.55% |
| Sep 30, 2025 | +17.03% | +6.83% | +8.06% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | +23.65% | +9.37% | +13.23% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | +16.71% | +9.59% | +11.46% |
| Dec 31, 2025 | +13.57% | +9.67% | +10.71% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | +15.94% | +11.29% | +12.08% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | +6.68% | +10.33% | +9.45% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | +3.17% | +4.88% | +4.15% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | +21.75% | +15.90% | +20.50% |
| May 29, 2026 | +39.01% | +22.00% | +33.23% |
| Jun 30, 2026 | +37.04% | +20.74% | +33.03% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | +30.90% | +20.78% | +24.29% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | +38.17% | +24.02% | +29.48% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | +40.06% | +23.61% | +33.78% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | +35.42% | +23.18% | +27.38% |
Reading these figures
Concentration and market exposure
With a beta of 1.66 to SPY, the portfolio did not beat the return its market exposure alone would imply. A 16-month record in a strong market is not evidence of skill.
Sensitivity: excluding NBIS
+24.33% cumulative, +1.15 pts over SPY. A mechanical check, not attribution: it does not divide the return between holdings.
Monthly returns
Daily returns linked within each month
| Month | Portfolio | SPY | QQQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026(partial) | −3.31% | −0.35% | −4.78% |
| Sep 2026 | +1.37% | −0.33% | +3.32% |
| Aug 2026 | +5.56% | +2.68% | +4.18% |
| Jul 2026 | −4.49% | +0.03% | −6.57% |
| Jun 2026 | −1.42% | −1.03% | −0.15% |
| May 2026 | +14.18% | +5.26% | +10.57% |
| Apr 2026 | +18.01% | +10.51% | +15.69% |
| Mar 2026 | −3.29% | −4.94% | −4.84% |
| Feb 2026 | −7.98% | −0.86% | −2.34% |
| Jan 2026 | +2.08% | +1.47% | +1.23% |
| Dec 2025 | −2.69% | +0.08% | −0.67% |
| Nov 2025 | −5.61% | +0.19% | −1.56% |
| Oct 2025 | +5.66% | +2.38% | +4.78% |
| Sep 2025 | +10.90% | +3.56% | +5.38% |
| Aug 2025 | +3.19% | +2.05% | +0.95% |
| Jul 2025(partial) | +2.26% | +1.08% | +1.58% |
Calendar years
| Year | Portfolio | SPY | QQQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +13.57% | +9.67% | +10.71% |
| 2026 | +19.24% | +12.32% | +15.06% |
2025 runs from Jul 3, 2025; 2026 is year to date through Oct 23, 2026.
Drawdown
Daily closes. Worst: −21.04% on Mar 30, 2026
Decline from the previous peak of the same daily series.
Table: deepest drawdown in each month
| Month | Deepest drawdown |
|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | −0.78% |
| Aug 2025 | −3.30% |
| Sep 2025 | −1.95% |
| Oct 2025 | −5.20% |
| Nov 2025 | −13.29% |
| Dec 2025 | −11.39% |
| Jan 2026 | −7.67% |
| Feb 2026 | −14.88% |
| Mar 2026 | −21.04% |
| Apr 2026 | −16.59% |
| May 2026 | −3.14% |
| Jun 2026 | −8.14% |
| Jul 2026 | −9.12% |
| Aug 2026 | −3.21% |
| Sep 2026 | −3.44% |
| Oct 2026 | −7.76% |
Risk statistics
Monthly frequency, 15 complete months, 2025-07 to 2026-09
| Statistic | Value |
|---|---|
| Volatility, annualizedMonthly returns, n = 15 | 25.68% |
| Beta to SPYDaily returns, since inception | 1.66 |
| QQQ total return, cumulativeSecondary benchmark, same sessions | +27.38% |
| Sharpe ratio95% interval −0.77 to 2.81, n = 15 | 1.02 |
| Sortino ration = 15 | 2.37 |
| Positive monthsComplete months | 9 of 15 |
With 15 months the Sharpe interval runs from negative to strongly positive, so the point estimate says little yet. Risk-free rate 4% a year.
Methodology and corrections
Correction, October 16, 2026
Methodology: return basis, data sources, reconciliation and definitions
Return basis
Daily time-weighted return, r = (V_end − F) / V_start − 1, linked geometrically. V is total account value at the close; F is the day's external flow. Flows earn no return on the day they arrive. Benchmarks are SPY and QQQ total return on dividend- and split-adjusted closes.
Statement-reconciled monthly cross-check
Aug 2025 to Jun 2026: Modified Dietz +33.90%; daily series +34.02%.
Monthly Modified Dietz returns from month-end statement values and dated statement flows, linked over the same months. The small remaining gap comes from Dietz approximating when flows arrive within each month; the daily series measures it directly.
Attribution
Holding-level contribution to portfolio return is not calculated. Attribution would require valuation at every execution, which this book's frequent partial exits and re-entries make unreliable, so it is left out rather than estimated.
Where the daily values come from
Through 2026-09-25, daily values are rebuilt from the account's transaction history and statement flows. After that, each day's value comes from the manually maintained holdings, reconciled weekly to the broker, priced at the official close. Holdings are maintained by hand and reconciled to the broker at least weekly. Source: Yahoo Finance, delayed prices. Each close is written at 16:15 ET as a preliminary closing return and rewritten that evening from final closing prices.
The October 16, 2026 correction
The broker's match deposits appear on monthly statements but not in the transaction export, so they were first counted as investment return. They are now treated as external flows on their statement dates. That lowered cumulative return by about 1.1 points and brought the daily series to within about 0.1 points of the statement-based monthly cross-check.
Benchmarks
SPY: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), total return from dividend- and split-adjusted closes. Replaced the S&P 500 Total Return index (^SP500TR) on Oct 16, 2026, so both benchmarks use the same adjusted-close basis. QQQ is a proxy for the Nasdaq-100, not its official total return index.
Risk statistic definitions
Sample standard deviation of monthly returns (daily returns compounded into complete calendar months), annualized by the square root of 12. Descriptive, not a forecast. Monthly frequency, complete months only, July 2025 counted from inception on July 3. Risk-free rate 4% a year. Sharpe standard error uses the iid approximation √((1 + ½·SR²)/n), annualized; the 95% interval is ±1.96 standard errors. With this few months, the interval is wide and the point estimate is not reliable. Maximum drawdown is measured on daily values; beta from daily returns against SPY.
Rounding
Figures are calculated from unrounded values and shown to two decimals. Monthly returns link to the cumulative figure before rounding, so a total built from rounded parts can differ slightly.
Closed ownership episodes
Realized results for 33 closed ownership periods, measured on the shares sold. A different measure from the time-weighted return above.
Past performance does not indicate future results. Self-reported, not independently verified, and not investment advice.