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Toffel Capital

Archived thesis

Historical analysis, first published . It records the reasoning at the time, is not a current recommendation, and is no longer updated. All archived theses
ServiceNow logoNOW · Equity · Enterprise SoftwareCurrent holding

ServiceNow

Priced as an AI casualty; more plausibly an AI beneficiary.

Investment case

The discount and what is causing it

ServiceNow has been hit alongside software generally, because investors increasingly view AI agents as a threat to traditional software. The concern is coherent: if an agent can perform the work a seat-based subscription used to mediate, then seat counts and pricing power both come under pressure.

The weakness looks more like a valuation discount than a deterioration in the opportunity. That distinction is the entire position, and it is also the risk: a re-rating driven by a structural fear does not reverse until results disprove the fear. Agents could also compress seat-based pricing outright, which would change the economics rather than just the multiple.

Why agentic AI may work in ServiceNow's favor

ServiceNow could instead become one of the major beneficiaries of agentic AI. Workflows and enterprise automation become more valuable when software agents can actually execute them, not less. An agent needs a system of record, a permission model and an auditable process to act inside. That is what the platform already is.

The measurable version of this argument is subscription revenue growth and margin, since a platform genuinely capturing agent workloads should show expansion rather than seat erosion.

Business economics

Reporting period through Q2 2026

Figures as filed with the SEC, and margins and growth rates calculated from them. Each chart has a data table.

Subscription + total revenue

Reported

Quarterly, US$ billions, Q3 2024 to Q2 2026

Filed as revenue from contract with customer excluding assessed tax. Fourth quarters are derived as the fiscal-year total less the other three quarters, since filings report no standalone Q4 figure.

Financial data through Q2 2026. Source: SEC filings (opens in a new tab)

Data table: Subscription + total revenue
Subscription + total revenue, US$ billions
PeriodSubscription + total revenue
Q3 2024$2.8B
Q4 2024$3.0B
Q1 2025$3.1B
Q2 2025$3.2B
Q3 2025$3.4B
Q4 2025$3.6B
Q1 2026$3.8B
Q2 2026$4.0B

Revenue growth (YoY)

Calculated from reported figures

Quarterly, percent, Q3 2024 to Q2 2026

Year-over-year change, same quarter prior year, from SEC-reported figures.

Financial data through Q2 2026. Source: SEC filings (opens in a new tab)

Data table: Revenue growth (YoY)
Revenue growth (YoY), percent
PeriodRevenue growth (YoY)
Q3 202422.2%
Q4 202421.3%
Q1 202518.6%
Q2 202522.4%
Q3 202521.8%
Q4 202520.7%
Q1 202622.1%
Q2 202624.0%

Gross margin

Calculated from reported figures

Quarterly, percent, Q3 2024 to Q2 2026

Calculated as gross profit divided by revenue, both as filed.

Financial data through Q2 2026. Source: SEC filings (opens in a new tab)

Data table: Gross margin
Gross margin, percent
PeriodGross margin
Q3 202479.1%
Q4 202478.7%
Q1 202578.9%
Q2 202577.5%
Q3 202577.3%
Q4 202576.6%
Q1 202675.1%
Q2 202670.7%

Operating margin

Calculated from reported figures

Quarterly, percent, Q3 2024 to Q2 2026

Calculated as operating income divided by revenue, both as filed.

Financial data through Q2 2026. Source: SEC filings (opens in a new tab)

Data table: Operating margin
Operating margin, percent
PeriodOperating margin
Q3 202414.9%
Q4 202412.6%
Q1 202514.6%
Q2 202511.1%
Q3 202516.8%
Q4 202512.4%
Q1 202613.3%
Q2 20264.1%

Risks and thesis invalidation

The thesis argues the case against itself in The discount and what is causing it.

Related decisions

  1. AddWeight 3.4% → 7.0%

    Increased the ServiceNow allocation with capital freed by the same-day AMD exit, concentrating the enterprise-software exposure into one name.

    In the decision log
  2. · exact date not recorded

    RebalanceWeight change unavailable

    Historical NOW buy lots include post-split fills; the position records were adjusted for the split. No change to the position or thesis. This is a bookkeeping adjustment, not a trade.

    In the decision log
  3. AddWeight 3.7% → 4.4%

    Completed the initial ServiceNow build with a final allocation, bringing the enterprise-software position to its intended size.

    In the decision log
  4. InitiateWeight 0% → 1.4%

    Rationale not recorded.

    In the decision log

Sources and revisions

Text revisions: Aug 20, 2026.