Archived thesis
ServiceNow
Priced as an AI casualty; more plausibly an AI beneficiary.
Investment case
The discount and what is causing it
ServiceNow has been hit alongside software generally, because investors increasingly view AI agents as a threat to traditional software. The concern is coherent: if an agent can perform the work a seat-based subscription used to mediate, then seat counts and pricing power both come under pressure.
The weakness looks more like a valuation discount than a deterioration in the opportunity. That distinction is the entire position, and it is also the risk: a re-rating driven by a structural fear does not reverse until results disprove the fear. Agents could also compress seat-based pricing outright, which would change the economics rather than just the multiple.
Why agentic AI may work in ServiceNow's favor
ServiceNow could instead become one of the major beneficiaries of agentic AI. Workflows and enterprise automation become more valuable when software agents can actually execute them, not less. An agent needs a system of record, a permission model and an auditable process to act inside. That is what the platform already is.
The measurable version of this argument is subscription revenue growth and margin, since a platform genuinely capturing agent workloads should show expansion rather than seat erosion.
Business economics
Reporting period through Q2 2026
Figures as filed with the SEC, and margins and growth rates calculated from them. Each chart has a data table.
Subscription + total revenue
Reported
Quarterly, US$ billions, Q3 2024 to Q2 2026
Filed as revenue from contract with customer excluding assessed tax. Fourth quarters are derived as the fiscal-year total less the other three quarters, since filings report no standalone Q4 figure.
Financial data through Q2 2026. Source: SEC filings (opens in a new tab)
Data table: Subscription + total revenue
| Period | Subscription + total revenue |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $3.0B |
| Q1 2025 | $3.1B |
| Q2 2025 | $3.2B |
| Q3 2025 | $3.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $3.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.0B |
Revenue growth (YoY)
Calculated from reported figures
Quarterly, percent, Q3 2024 to Q2 2026
Year-over-year change, same quarter prior year, from SEC-reported figures.
Financial data through Q2 2026. Source: SEC filings (opens in a new tab)
Data table: Revenue growth (YoY)
| Period | Revenue growth (YoY) |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 22.2% |
| Q4 2024 | 21.3% |
| Q1 2025 | 18.6% |
| Q2 2025 | 22.4% |
| Q3 2025 | 21.8% |
| Q4 2025 | 20.7% |
| Q1 2026 | 22.1% |
| Q2 2026 | 24.0% |
Gross margin
Calculated from reported figures
Quarterly, percent, Q3 2024 to Q2 2026
Calculated as gross profit divided by revenue, both as filed.
Financial data through Q2 2026. Source: SEC filings (opens in a new tab)
Data table: Gross margin
| Period | Gross margin |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 79.1% |
| Q4 2024 | 78.7% |
| Q1 2025 | 78.9% |
| Q2 2025 | 77.5% |
| Q3 2025 | 77.3% |
| Q4 2025 | 76.6% |
| Q1 2026 | 75.1% |
| Q2 2026 | 70.7% |
Operating margin
Calculated from reported figures
Quarterly, percent, Q3 2024 to Q2 2026
Calculated as operating income divided by revenue, both as filed.
Financial data through Q2 2026. Source: SEC filings (opens in a new tab)
Data table: Operating margin
| Period | Operating margin |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 14.9% |
| Q4 2024 | 12.6% |
| Q1 2025 | 14.6% |
| Q2 2025 | 11.1% |
| Q3 2025 | 16.8% |
| Q4 2025 | 12.4% |
| Q1 2026 | 13.3% |
| Q2 2026 | 4.1% |
Risks and thesis invalidation
The thesis argues the case against itself in The discount and what is causing it.
Related decisions
AddWeight 3.4% → 7.0%
Increased the ServiceNow allocation with capital freed by the same-day AMD exit, concentrating the enterprise-software exposure into one name.
In the decision log· exact date not recorded
RebalanceWeight change unavailable
Historical NOW buy lots include post-split fills; the position records were adjusted for the split. No change to the position or thesis. This is a bookkeeping adjustment, not a trade.
In the decision logAddWeight 3.7% → 4.4%
Completed the initial ServiceNow build with a final allocation, bringing the enterprise-software position to its intended size.
In the decision log
Sources and revisions
- Company filings: SEC EDGAR (opens in a new tab), through Q2 2026
- Holdings snapshot: October 16, 2026
- The analysis and views are Isaac Toffel's own.
Text revisions: Aug 20, 2026.
