Rocket Lab

I sold AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab on the same day, September 24, 2026, and put most of the proceeds into SpaceX. My own post-mortem showed the two traded on one driver, sentiment toward pre-profit space companies, so I consolidated that exposure into the company that leads the industry in both launch and satellite broadband.

Electron is the operating business. It launches regularly and generates revenue, which distinguishes Rocket Lab from most companies with comparable ambitions. Launch cadence is the metric that matters. Each launch is revenue, and a rising rate is the evidence that manufacturing and operations are working.

Neutron is the larger vehicle in development and carries most of the potential value. It is also the main risk. Development is progressing, but new launch vehicles are historically late and expensive, and a first flight is a binary event. Neutron matters enough to the upside case that schedule slippage or a materially more expensive development path would change the economics of the position.

The recent selloff appeared larger than the underlying developments justified, which was the entry argument. The upside is substantial, but execution risk remains real, and I keep it relatively small precisely because the outcome remains high-risk.

Backlog gives some visibility into future revenue, spanning launch contracts and the space-systems business that manufactures satellite components and spacecraft. That second segment is the less-discussed half of the company and currently the larger revenue contributor.

The company is not profitable, and revenue growth is being funded by investment in Neutron. Gross margin trend and cash burn matter more here than revenue growth on its own. Growth that consumes more capital than it returns is not yet a business model.