Archived thesis
Vistra
Contracted power for data centers, at a price that asks little of the business.
Investment case
Why power, and why this vehicle
Power moves on a longer clock than compute. Generators are now signing contracts that run for decades, and a New Era filing describes a 20-year agreement to buy up to 207 megawatts from Vistra's Odessa gas plant.
I bought Vistra partly on my read that federal and state policy currently favors new generation for data centers, and because power exposure holds up better than compute in a pause in AI spending.
What the price asks
Vistra's price requires about 6% annual earnings growth for a decade, and the business is currently doing better than that. It is one of the cheapest names in the book, and one of the more levered.
Timing is the weakness
Most of the long-term contracts start after my two-year window, so Vistra still sells much of its output at market prices until then. Its CFO said ERCOT forward prices are meaningfully lower than last October and that 2027 is trending toward the low end of its range.
Policy support cuts both ways: management said a Texas interconnection audit will pause some reviews for a couple of months. What I am watching is 2027 results against that range.
Risks and thesis invalidation
The thesis argues the case against itself in Timing is the weakness.
Related decisions
AddWeight change unavailable
Added to Vistra in the same window as the Oscar Health exit. Purchase date inferred to between Sep 21 and 23.
In the decision logAddWeight change unavailable
Added to Vistra two sessions after opening it, funded by the same-day SGOV reduction.
In the decision logInitiateWeight 0% → 1.5%
Bought partly on my read that federal and state policy currently favors new generation for data centers, and because power exposure holds up better than compute in a pause in AI spending. The weakness is timing: most of the long-term contracts start after my two-year window, so Vistra still sells much of its output at market prices until then.
In the decision log
Sources and revisions
- Holdings snapshot: October 16, 2026
- The analysis and views are Isaac Toffel's own.
Text revisions: Sep 27, 2026.